The Impact of the Armed Conflict in Ukraine on the Scenarios of Stabilizing European Security

Abstract

The article addresses the issue of the impact of the armed conflict in Ukraine on the scenarios of stabilizing European security. Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has led to a reassessment of the scenarios of the development of the security order in Europe. Russia’s actions against the independent Ukrainian state constitute a complete violation of international law and undermine the principles of international cooperation and partnership developed after 1989. We are not able to fully predict the effects of this conflict in the future, we can assume several scenarios of the development of the situation in Ukraine and security in Europe. The first is the optimistic scenario - beneficial for the stabilization of European security, assuming that peace will be concluded and the occupied territory of Ukraine will be returned. The second is the negative scenario - unfavorable for European security, in which Russia will continue to escalate the conflict in Ukraine and it is possible that it may attack one of the Baltic states belonging to NATO, thus provoking a new conflict in Europe. The third scenario – realistic, the most probable one – assumes the lack of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine and the continued military operations until the occupation of all of Ukraine. The foundations of these scenarios should be analyzed in three aspects: the first is the challenge that Russia poses to the West, including the cohesion of NATO and the European Union, the second is respect for the principles and rules of international law as the foundations of the international order, the third is the durability of the mechanisms of cooperation and elimination of threats developed over the years between the West and Russia. Currently, as a result of the threat from Russia, the West must unite even more in the matter of defense cooperation and the development of common mechanisms and strategies effective in the face of the Kremlin’s challenges, the most important is the position of the United States and its further financial and military aid for Ukraine.