Between Expert Bias and Overconfidence – on Financial Decisions During a Natural Experiment

Mariusz Kicia


In consequence of the 2014 reform of the Polish pension system, Poles were faced with a necessity of declaration regarding the way they wanted to continue saving for retirement. Although the conditions of this natural experiment were considered controversial, from the scientific point of view it was interesting to analyse how decisions were made. The article presents the results of an analysis of factors that influenced following expert’s opinions or self-reliance in that case. Based on the results of the survey provided in February 2014 among the employees of the Maria Curie-Skłodowska University it was proved that those who voluntarily saved for retirement were most likely to follow experts in making their choice but declared high self-assessment of one’s knowledge on financial market, calculation of one’s pension needs and declared positive vision of one’s retirement were more often connected with self-reliance of decision. These mechanisms seem to confirm overconfidence and the Duning-Kruger effect.


behavioural finance; pension savings; Kruger-Duning effect; overconfidence

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Data publikacji: 2016-01-28 11:03:32
Data złożenia artykułu: 2015-07-07 16:03:24


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