The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Consumer Credit Market in Eurozone Countries

Blandyna Puszer, Maria Czech

Streszczenie w języku polskim


Theoretical background: The problem of the impact of the pandemic on the consumer credit market in Eurozone countries is important both from a cognitive point of view and from the perspective of economic practice. The current state of knowledge on the consumer credit market situation in Eurozone countries is incomplete. It is more common to find works concentrating on the effect of the pandemic on the consumer credit regulations, on the banking sector, or on evaluation of the consumer credit market situation in selected Eurozone countries, selected European countries or Europe as a whole. As a result, many accounts of the impact of the pandemic on consumer credit can be found, but there are no studies presenting the situation of the consumer credit market in Eurozone countries during COVID-19 in a comprehensive and integrated manner, simultaneously combining theoretical aspects and research results.

Purpose of the article: This study has two objectives. The main objective was to examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the value of consumer credit in Eurozone countries. The specific objective was to examine the dynamics and directions of changes in the value of consumer credit during the pandemic in the Eurozone. The study hypothesis is that COVID-19 has determined the amount of household consumer credit debt in Eurozone countries, but that the determinants of this debt and the direction and strength of their impact are diverse.

Research methods: The achievement of the objectives and hypothesis verification was based on a critical analysis of source texts and on quantitative research, in which time series analysis and multiple linear regression analysis were used.

Main findings: It has been proven that the pandemic has influenced the tendency of households to take out credit, as well as the propensity of banks to grant credit, and that it therefore has affected the behaviour of both borrowers and lenders. We also showed that in periods of increased COVID-19 transmission, there was a low propensity for using credit, while in periods of relative suppression of COVID-19 symptoms, this tendency increased. It also has been proven that COVID-19 has unevenly affected the value of loans across countries. A significant difference was observed in the strength of the impact of individual independent variables on the value of consumer credit in the Eurozone, as well as a different direction of correlation between the variables. Moreover, significant differences were found in the number of variables influencing the value of consumer loans in individual Eurozone countries.


Słowa kluczowe


consumer credit market; household; COVID-19; pandemic; Eurozone countries

Pełny tekst:

PDF (English)

Bibliografia


Abd Samad, K., Daud, S.N.M., & Dali, N.R.S.M. (2020). Determinants of Household Debt in Emerging Economies: A Macro Panel Analysis. Cogent Business & Management, 7(1), 1831765. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311975.2020.1831765

Aiyar, S., Dao, M., Jobst, A., Mineshima, A., Mitra, S., & Pradhan, M. (2021). COVID-19: How Will European Banks fare?. IMF Departmental Papers, 21.

Ando, A., & Modigliani, F. (1963). The “Life Cycle” Hypothesis of Saving: Aggregate Implications and Tests. The American Economic Review, 53(1), 55–84. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/1817129

Angeloni, I. (2021). Non-Performing Loans: An Old Problem in a New Situation. European Economy, 1, 107–118.

Beck, T. (2021). Banking and COVID-19 – Through the Crisis and Beyond. European Economy, 1, 75–88.

Borowski, J., Jaworski, K., & Olipra, J. (2017). Economic, Institutional and Socio-Cultural Determinants of Consumer Credit in the Context of Monetary Integration. NBP Working Paper, 254.

Bouyon, S., & Oliinyk, I. (2019). Price Rules in Consumer Credit: Should the EU Act? European Credit Research Institute Research Report, 22.

Catherine, S.f.H., Jamaliah, M.Y., Aminah, M., & Arshad, A. (2016). Household Debt, Macroeconomic fundamentals and Household Characteristics in Asian Developed and Developing Countries. The Social Sciences, 11(18), 4358–4362. https://doi.org/10.36478/sscience.2016.4358.4362

Ceylan, Z. (2020). Estimation of COVID-19 Prevalence in Italy, Spain, and france. Science of The Total. Environment, 729. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138817

CFPB (Consumer Financial Protection Bureau). (2020). The Early Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Consumer Credit. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Offie of Research Special Issue Brief.

Coletta, M., De Bonis, R., & Piermattei, S. (2014). The Determinants of Household Debt: A Cross-Country Analysis. Bank of Italy. Temi di Discussione. Economic Working Papers, 987.

Cooper, C.R., Getter, D.E., Gnanarajah, R., Perkins, D.W., & Scott, A.P. (2020). COVID-19: Consumer Loan Forbearance and Other Relief Options. Congressional Research Service.

Czech, M., & Puszer, B. (2021). Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Consumer Credit Market in V4 Countries. Risks, 9(12), 229. https://doi.org/10.3390/risks9120229

Del Rio, A., & Young, G. (2005). The Determinants of Unsecured Borrowing: Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey. Bank of England Working Paper, 263.

Demertzis, M., Domínguez-Jiménez, M., & Lusardi, A. (2020). The financial fragility of Determinants of Consumer Credit in the Context of Monetary Integration. Policy Contribution, 15, 1–16.

Directive 2008/48/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 April 2008 on credit agreements for consumers and repealing Council Directive 87/102/EEC. Retrieved from https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32008L0048&from=EN

EBA (European Banking Authority). (2020). Consumer Lending in the EU Banking Sector. March 2020 – Thematic Note. Retrieved from https://www.eba.europa.eu/sites/default/documents/fies/document_library/Risk%20Analysis%20and%20Data/Risk%20Assessment%20Reports/2020/Thematic%20notes/881264/Thematic%20note%20on%20Consumer%20Lending%20in%20the%20EU%20banking%20sector.pdfER

ECB (European Central Bank). (2021). Statistical Data Warehouse. Retrieved from https://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/browse.do?node=9691311

Fasianos, A., Godin, A., Kinsella, S., & Wu, W. (2014). Household Indebtedness and Financial Fragility Across Age Cohorts, Evidence from European Countries. Limerick: University of Limerick.

Fieldhouse, D., & Partridge, J. (2020). forecasting the Impact of the COVID-19 Recession on Consumer Credit Losses. Moody’s Analytics. Retrieved from https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/media/article/2020/forecasting%20the%20Impact%20of%20the%20COVID-19%20Recession%20on%20Consumer%20Credit%20Losses.pdf

Fisher, I. (1930). Theory of Interest: As Determined by Impatience to Spend Income and Opportunity to Invest It. New York: Macmillan.

Friedman, M. (1957). A Theory of the Consumption Function. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Gębski, L. (2021). The Impact of the Crisis Triggered by the COVID-19 Pandemic and the Actions of Regulators on the Consumer finance Market in Poland and Other European Union Countries. Risks, 9(6), 102. https://doi.org/10.3390/risks9060102

Guardia, N.D. (2002). Consumer Credit in the European Union. European Credit Research Institute Research Report, 1.

Henry, N., & Morris, J. (2017). Consumers, Credit and Scaling Affordable Lending: A Literature and Evidence Review. Centre for Business in Society, Coventry University.

Jestl, S. (2019). The Impact of Income Inequality on Household Indebtedness in Euro Area Countries. Working Paper, 173. The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies.

Kata, R., Nowak, K., Leszczyńska, M., Kowal, A., & Sebastianka, B. (2021). Bezpieczeństwo finansowe gospodarstw domowych – wybrane zagadnienia. Rzeszów: Wyd. UR.

Marron, D. (2012). Producing Over-Indebtedness. Risk, Prudence and Consumer Vulnerability. Journal of Cultural Economy, 5(4), 407–421. https://doi.org/10.1080/17530350.2012.703144

Meng, X., Hoang, N.T., & Siriwardana, M. (2013). The Determinants of Australian Household Debt: A Macro-Level Study. Journal of Asian Economics, 29, 80–90. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2013.08.008

Modigliani, f., & Brumberg, R. (1955). Utility Analysis and the Consumption function: An Interpretation of Cross-Section Data. In K.K. Kurihara (Ed.), The Life Cycle Hypothesis of Saving Twenty Years Later. Post-Keynesian Economics (pp. 388–436). London: George Allen and Unwin.

Mohamed, S., Mohamadon, S.S., Ibrahim, W.M.f.W., Nasrul, f., Hassan, S.S., Isa, M.A.M., & Noh, M.K.A. (2020). The Macroeconomic Determinants of Household Debt in Malaysia. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 10(5), 987–1000. http://dx.doi.org/10.6007/IJARBSS/v10-i5/7425

Norwood, P., & Molinari, A. (2021). Consumer Credit Market Malpractices Uncovered. An In-Depth Study of Consumer Credit Markets in Spain, Romania and Ireland and What It Means for the Consumer Credit Directive Review. Finance Watch Brussels. Retrieved from https://www.fiance-watch.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Consumer-credit-market-study-V13.pdf

Odone, A., Delmonte, D., Scognamiglio, T., & Signorelli, C. (2020). COVID-19 Deaths in Lombardy, Italy: Data in Context. The Lancet, 5(6). https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30099-2

Our World in Data. (2021). Retrieved from https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Proposal for a Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council on consumer credits. (2021). COM/2021/347 fial. European Commission.

Regulation (EU) 2021/379 of the European Central Bank of 22 January 2021 on the balance sheet items of credit institutions and of the monetary financial institutions sector (recast) (ECB/2021/2). Official Journal of the European Union, L 073, 03.03.2021. Retrieved from https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=OJ:L:2021:073:TOC

T’ng, B.H. (2013). External Risks and Macro-financial Linkages in the ASEAN-5 Economies. Bank Negara Malaysia Working Papers, WP1/2013.




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.17951/h.2021.55.4.49-71
Data publikacji: 2022-05-08 07:53:14
Data złożenia artykułu: 2022-02-03 12:52:37


Statystyki


Widoczność abstraktów - 224
Pobrania artykułów (od 2020-06-17) - PDF (English) - 0

Wskaźniki



Odwołania zewnętrzne

  • Brak odwołań zewnętrznych


Prawa autorskie (c) 2022 Maria Czech, Blandyna Puszer

Creative Commons License
Powyższa praca jest udostępniana na lcencji Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.