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The Behavioural Chain in the Real Estate Market and Its Implications for the Concept and Measurement of Value
Abstract
Theoretical background: Markets are inherently multidimensional, encompassing economic, institutional, sociological, spatial, and behavioral dimensions. Behavioral economics challenges traditional economic assumptions, particularly the notion of rational decision-making, by integrating psychological insights to address cognitive limitations and emotional influences on individual decisions. The real estate market exemplifies these dynamics due to its unique inefficiencies and characteristics, such as fixed locations and high capital intensity, which amplify the impact of cognitive biases, heuristics, and emotions on market participants. Behavioral patterns not only shape transaction prices but also influence valuation processes and outcomes. This underscores the need to integrate behavioral economics into valuation methodologies and the definition of market value, addressing a critical research gap: the insufficient exploration of the interplay between valuation processes and behavioral factors affecting value determination in real estate markets.
Purpose of the article: This study aims to demonstrate the impact of behavioral patterns among property market participants on the formation of market value. It proposes three research hypotheses: (1) there is a behavioral chain in the property market where decision-making, prices, valuation processes, and value itself are interlinked and influenced by behavioral factors; (2) the behavioral nature of market value increases valuation uncertainty, necessitating its reflection in the definition of value; and (3) this uncertainty should be considered in the reporting of valuation results.
Research methods: To situate the concept of market value within the behavioral framework of real estate, this study proposes augmenting the existing definition of value with elements of risk and uncertainty. It further advocates operationalizing this perspective by modifying the reporting of valuation results to include ranges or standard deviations. The research employs (1) a critical analysis of the relevant literature and (2) a survey of professional valuers to validate the theoretical considerations and behavioral aspects of the property market in business practice.
Main findings: This study introduces the concept of a behavioral chain in real estate, encompassing investment decisions, price formation, valuation processes, and resulting market value. It highlights the significant influence of market participants' emotions, cognitive biases, and decision-making under conditions of risk and uncertainty at each stage of this chain. The findings reveal that current definitions of market value inadequately reflect the behavioral and market-specific characteristics of real estate, emphasizing the need for an enriched definition incorporating uncertainty and subjectivity. The study underscores the importance of presenting valuation results as ranges or with standard deviations to better capture inherent uncertainties, enhancing transparency and credibility. Finally, it calls for integrating behavioral economics into valuation standards to align practices with the complexities and dynamics of modern real estate markets.
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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.17951/h.2025.59.2.73-86
Date of publication: 2025-09-02 13:03:20
Date of submission: 2024-12-27 15:46:52
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