The Estimate GDP per capita for the City of Lublin in the Years 2008–2015

Abstract

The article aims to estimate GDP per capita for the City of Lublin in the years 2008–2015 and to present a new method of estimation of GDP per capita in Polish Counties (NUTS 4). The estimate has been made by using a multiple regression analysis. Explanatory variables have been derived from GDP per capita in NUTS 3, the average monthly gross wage, registered unemployment rate, the share of economic entities employing less than 10 persons and the ratio of population in the working age in Lublin Sub-region (NUTS 3) and in Lublin County (NUTS 4). The validation procedure presented in the article confirms, that the error estimation is satisfactory in comparison to the alternative approaches to GDP estimation in local areas discussed in the literature. However, in the discussion of the results, it was indicated, that the estimated values of GDP per capita are prone to the process of sub-urbanisation of people with high wages.