Rosja na Bałkanach w XXI wieku: konflikty, działania i perspektywy

Bojana Zoric, Jan Holzer

Streszczenie w języku polskim


Po rozpadzie Socjalistycznej Federalnej Republiki Jugosławii na początku lat 90. sześć nowo niepodległych krajów dążyło do integracji europejskiej i euroatlantyckiej. Korzystne położenie geograficzne i znaczenie geopolityczne regionu jako pogranicza Wschodu i Zachodu zyskały międzynarodową uwagę podczas wojen bałkańskich. W tym okresie Rosja zaczęła z większym zainteresowaniem patrzeć na ten region, opierając się na swoich historycznych, ideowych, religijnych i politycznych powiązaniach z tamtejszymi krajami. Artykuł analizuje obecność i rolę Rosji w regionie, koncentrując się na dwóch głównych wymiarach: (1) nastrojach antyzachodnich odzwierciedlanych w wysiłkach Kremla mających na celu uniemożliwienie awansu regionu na drodze do NATO oraz (2) elemencie ideowym obejmującym mnóstwo działań i taktyk mających na celu wywieranie wpływu politycznego i maksymalizację korzyści ekonomicznych. Szerszy kontekst geopolityczny wyjaśniony jest przez pryzmat wojny na Ukrainie, której wynik może spowodować zmiany w sojuszach w regionie, co w konsekwencji wpłynie na wieloletni cel Kremla, jakim jest ugruntowanie pozycji regionalnej potęgi.


Słowa kluczowe


Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, European and Euro-Atlantic integration, Balkans, Russia, anti-Western sentiment, geopolitical context, regional power.

Pełny tekst:

PDF (English)

Bibliografia


Al Jazeera, Vučić: Srbiju očekuju najteži pritisci da uvede sankcije Rusiji, https://balkans.aljazeera.net/news/balkan/2023/8/18/vucic-srbiju-ocekuju-najtezi-pritisci-da-uvede-sankcije-rusiji, access 21 VIII 2023.

Antonenko O., Russia and the Deadlock over Kosovo, “Russie.Nei.Visions”, 2007, no. 21.

Barisic S., The Role of the Serbian and Russian Orthodox Churches in Shaping Governmental Policies, [in:] The Warp of The Serbian Identity, Anti-Westernism, Russophilia, Traditionalism…, Helsinki Committee for Human Rights in Serbia, Belgrade 2016.

Bechev D., The 2016 Coup Attempt in Montenegro: Is Russia’s Balkans Footprint Expanding?, Foreign Policy Research Institute, 2018.

Bechev D., Understanding Russia’s influence in the Western Balkans, Hybrid CoE, Strategic Analysis, 2018.

BiEPAG, Western Balkans: Reactions and Implications of the Russian Aggression of Ukraine, https://biepag.eu/blog/western-balkans-reactions-and-implications-of-the-russian-aggression-of-ukraine/, access 14 X 2022.

Center for the Study of Democracy, Assessing Russia’s Economic Footprint in Macedonia, https://csd.bg/fileadmin/user_upload/publications_library/files/2018_01/CSD_Policy_Brief_71_Macedonia.pdf, “Policy Brief No. 71”, access 11 XI 2022.

Clark M., Russian Hybrid Warfare, Institute for the Study of War, 2020.

Cohen, L. J., The Disintegration of Yugoslavia, “Current History”, 1992, vol. 91(568).

Constitute project, Montenegro 2007, https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Montenegro_2007?lang=en, access 14 XI 2022.

Cvetkovska S., Russian Businessman Behind Unrest in Macedonia, Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP), 2018, https://www.occrp.org/en/investigations/8329-russian-businessman-behind-unrest-in-macedonia, access 26 X 2022.

Digital Forensic Center, Russian support to the Serbian Orthodox Church in Montenegro, https://dfcme.me/en/russian-support-to-the-serbian-orthodox-church-in-montenegro/, access 09 XI 2022.

Dokos T., Conclusion: The EU and the Western Balkans as a Single Security Space, European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), 2017.

Doncheva T., Tracking Russia’s Narratives in the Western Balkan Media, NATO Strategic Communication Center of Excellence, 2020.

Eisentraut Dr. S., Leon S. de, Propaganda and Disinformation in the Western Balkans: How the EU Can Counter Russia’s Information War, “Konrad Adenauer Stiftung”, 2018, no. 294.

Eur Activ, Commission OKs plant acquisition by Serbian Gazprom-owned oil company, https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/commission-oks-plant-acquisition-by-serbian-gazprom-owned-oil-company/, access 24 X 2022.

European Parliament, Leading MEPs urge the EU to ‘finally impose’ sanctions on Milorad Dodik, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/delegations/en/leading-meps-urge-the-eu-to-finally-impo/product-details/20230704DPU36681, access 21 VIII 2023.

European Union External Action, 10 years of Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue, https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/10-years-belgrade-pristina-dialogue-0_en, access 19 X 2022.

European Union External Action, Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue: Press statement by EU Special Representative Miroslav Lajčák following the meeting, https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/belgrade-pristina-dialogue-press-statement-eu-special-representative-miroslav-laj%C4%8D%C3%A1k-following_en, access 19 X 2022.

Global Energy Monitor and Bank Watch Network, New plans to hook the Western Balkans on gas will make the region’s energy transition even harder, https://bankwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/GEM-Bankwatch-W-Balkans-Briefing.pdf, access 21 VIII 2023.

Gomart T., EU-Russia Relations, Toward a Way Out of Depression, Center for Strategic & International Studies, 2008.

Institut za Europske Poslove, Od bombardovanja do saradnje, Srbija i NATO 22 godine kasnije, https://iea.rs/blog/2021/03/23/od-bombardovanja-do-saradnje-srbija-i-nato-22-godine-kasnije/, access 23 X 2022.

Invest in See, Russians Biggest Investors in Montenegro, http://investinsee.com/news/montenegro/russians-biggest-investors-in-montenegro, access 08 XI 2022.

Jovanovski B., North Macedonia and Bulgaria agree to work together on new energy deal, https://www.euronews.com/2022/10/18/north-macedonia-and-bulgaria-set-aside-differences-in-quest-for-alternative-energy-sources, access 09 XI 2022.

Kajosevic S., Montenegro Accuses Russia of Cyber-Attacks on Govt Server, “Balkan Insight”, https://balkaninsight.com/2022/08/26/montenegro-accuses-russia-of-cyber-attacks-on-govt-server/, access 08 X 2022.

Kajosevic S., Montenegro Urges Russian tourists to Save Summer Season, “Balkan Insight”, https://balkaninsight.com/2021/06/16/montenegro-urges-russian-tourists-to-save-summer-season/, access 08 XI 2022.

Kajosevic S., Russian Interest in Montenegrin Real Estate Spikes Despite Sanctions, “Balkan Insight”, https://balkaninsight.com/2022/07/07/russian-interest-in-montenegrin-real-estate-spikes-despite-sanctions/, access 08 XI 2022.

Karcic H., Putin’s Most Loyal Balkan Client, “Foreign Policy”, https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/07/bosnia-elections-milorad-dodik-putin-russia, access 28 X 2022.

Konitzer A., Serbia between East and West: Bratstvo, Balancing and Business on Europe’s Frontier, The National Council for Eurasian and East European Research (NCEER), Working Paper, 2010.

Metodieva A., Russian Narrative Proxies in the Western Balkans, “The German Marshall Fund of the United States”, 2019, No. 16.

Muratovic A. In Balkans, Russia Dismisses Macedonian Meddling Charges, Voa News, https://www.voanews.com/a/in-balkans-russia-dismisses-macedonian-meddling-charges/3888088.html, access 25 X 2022.

N1, BiH Ambassador to Russia: Republika Srpska prevents sanctions against Russia, https://n1info.ba/english/news/bih-ambassaros-to-russia-republika-srpska-prevents-sanctions-against-russia/, 2022, access 08 XI 2022.

N1, Protest podrške Rusiji u centru Beograda, https://rs.n1info.com/vesti/protest-podrske-rusiji-u-centru-beograda/, 2022, access 14 XI 2022.

N1, Russia, Montenegro in exchange over law on religious communities, 2019, https://rs.n1info.com/english/news/a557107-russia-montenegro-in-exchange-over-law-on-religious-communities/, access 09 XI 2022.

Radeljic B., Russia’s Involvement in the Kosovo Case: Defending Serbian Interests or Securing Its Own Influence in Europe?, “Regional Studies of Russia, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia”, 2017, vol. 6(2).

Radio Free Europe, Vucic Says Serbia Secures Gas Deal With Russia Following Phone Talks With Putin, https://www.rferl.org/a/serbia-vucic-gas-deal-russia/31873908.html, access 09 XI 2022.

Regional Cooperation Council, Balkan Barometer Public Opinion 2022, https://www.rcc.int/balkanbarometer/home, access 13 X 2022.

Reisinger H., Golts A., Russia’s Hybrid Warfare: Waging War below the Radar of Traditional Collective Defence, NATO Defense College, 2014.

Samokhvalov V., Russia in the Balkans, “Insight Turkey”, 2019, vol. 21(2).

Samorukov, M., Vuksanovic V., Untarnished by War: Why Russia’s Soft Power Is So Resilient in Serbia, Carnegie Endowment for Democracy, 2023, https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2023/01/untarnished-by-war-why-russias-soft-power-is-so-resilient-in-serbia?lang=en, access 12 V 2024.

Santora M., Barnes J.E., In the Balkans, Russia and the West Fight a Disinformation-Age Battle “New York Times”, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/16/world/europe/macedonia-referendum-russia-nato.html, access 08 X 2022.

Sarajevo Times, Republika Srpska ignores Sanctions and openly attracts Russian Investments, https://sarajevotimes.com/republika-srpska-ignores-sanctions-and-openly-attracts-russian-investments/, access 08 XI 2022.

Secrieru S. et al., Fire and Ice, The Russian-Turkish partnership, “European Union Institute for Security Studies”, 2021, no. 168, https://www.iss.europa.eu/sites/default/files/EUISSFiles/CP_168.pdf, access 15 XI 2022.

Secrieru S., Russia in the Western Balkans: Tactical wins, strategic setbacks, “European Union Institute for Security Studies”, 2019, Brief 8.

Seroka M., Montenegro: Russia accused of attempting to organise a coup d’état, “Center for Eastern Studies”, https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2017-03-06/montenegro-russia-accused-attempting-to-organise-a-coup-detat, access 25 X 2022.

Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, Statistical Release, Statistics of external trade, https://publikacije.stat.gov.rs/G2023/PdfE/G20231207.pdf, access 22 VIII 2023.

Stratulat C. (ed.), EU integration and party politics in the Balkans, “European Policy Center”, 2014, no. 77.

TASS, Russia’s victory means liberation of everyone willing from Nazi regime in Ukraine – SVR, https://tass.com/politics/1756013, access 23 V 2024.

The Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC), Russia/Montenegro, https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/rus/partner/mne, access 22 X 2022.

TPortal, Dodik podupro agresiju na Ukrajinu: Ona je bila nužna radi zaštite ukrajinskih Rusa, https://www.tportal.hr/vijesti/clanak/dodik-podupro-agresiju-na-ukrajinu-ona-je-bila-nuzna-radi-zastite-ukrajinskih-rusa-20220919 , 2022, access 18 X 2022.

Trajanoski Z., Russian Disinformation Propaganda in Macedonia before the 2018 Referendum, https://truthmeter.mk/russian-disinformation-propaganda-in-macedonia-before-the-2018-referendum/, Truthmeter, access 10 X 2022.

Vann J., Zeneli V., From Powder Keg to Power House: Engineering the Western Balkans for Success, “Modern Diplomacy”, https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2021/06/30/from-powder-keg-to-power-house-engineering-the-western-balkans-for-success/, access 28 IX 2022.

Wedgwood R., NATO’s campaign in Yugoslavia, “The American Journal of International Law”, 1999, vol. 93(4).

Whitlow F., The Balkans Powder Keg, “A Path for Europe (PfEU)”, 03 II 2022.

Zoric B., Assessing Russian Impact on the Western Balkan Countries EU Accession: Cases of Croatia and Serbia, “Journal of Liberty and International Affairs”, 2017, vol. 3(2).

Zweers W. et al., Little substance, considerable impact. Russian influence in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Montenegro, Clingendael, the Netherlands Institute of International Relations, 2023.




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.17951/bc.2024.9.9-30
Data publikacji: 2024-09-26 12:58:08
Data złożenia artykułu: 2023-10-17 15:19:49


Statystyki


Widoczność abstraktów - 160
Pobrania artykułów (od 2020-06-17) - PDF (English) - 39

Wskaźniki



Odwołania zewnętrzne

  • Brak odwołań zewnętrznych


Prawa autorskie (c) 2024 Bojana Zoric, Jan Holzer

Creative Commons License
Powyższa praca jest udostępniana na lcencji Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.