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The Analysis of the Reserve Asset Needs’ Sensitivity in Poland in the Years 2004–2015
Abstract
The optimal level of reserve assets varies widely depending on the specifics of the economy’s exposure to and tolerance of external shocks, which explains different reserve assets needs also among economies with similar levels of economic development. Therefore, the level of reserve assets should be considered as a safe level, if it creates sustained reduction in the investor’s risk premium, thereby providing easier and cheaper access to external financing of debt and development, enhancing growth prospects and boosting investment. A scenario analysis of the need for reserve assets in Poland in the years 2004–2015 done in the case of an external shock resulting in a decrease in exports, a partial flight of foreign portfolio investment and the bank-related outflows from Polish banking sector dominated by foreign-owned institutions, confirms the sensitivity of the Polish economy to external shocks and explains its lower credibility and higher cost of capital as compared with other countries of Central and Eastern Europe.
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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.17951/h.2017.51.5.251
Date of publication: 2017-12-22 12:02:53
Date of submission: 2017-04-18 17:17:33
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